What? No temperature – Sun correlation in the last 30 years?
Published 28th September 2009 - 34 comments - 4982 views -
There is no denying, that in the past the Earth temperatures were governed by fluctuations of solar activity. Look at the global cooling during Maunder Minimum. Look at the Christensen’s graph. The correlation is not an exact match, true. But it never was (even in the preindustrial period) and never will be.
(Sun-Temperature link before 1970 is not disputed by anyone. See also http://www-ssc.igpp.ucla.edu/IASTP/43/ for correlation before 1900)
However when a climate sceptic says, that Earth temperatures are STILL governed by solar activity, the AGW believers have a strong argument. The solar irradiance has not increased over the lasts 30 years. Allegedly. This is what peer review literature accepts and what the satellite data confirm.
And yet I have a problem accepting this. Because the solar activity DID go up during this period. TH!INK about it. Is it really possible for solar irradiance not to go up, when the sunspots and solar activity does go up? Hardly.
(Sunspots over the last 30 years)
When your thermometer shows 50°C while your house is covered with snow, what do you think? You conclude the machine needs repair. I suggest the solar irradiance measurements are wrong.
Th!nk about it. How was the irradiance measured in the last 30 years? By satellites. Is it the same satellites, that did not show any warming of global temperatures since 1970s? So much for their reliability (see 5). The satellite warming data had to be corrected (though even after the correction they show lower temperature increase in troposphere, than we have down on the ground). And the solar irradiance data apparently need to be corrected as well. It will not be the first time nor the last time (remember, how Libby’s carbon dating had to be recalibrated?).
(24th sunspot cycle prediction)
Let us compare sunspots with progression of Earth temperatures. Sunspot observations, unlike the satellite technology, are so easy, that they have zero margin of error:
20th sunspot cycle (1964-1976): low
21st sunspot cycle (1976-1986): increased = global warming started in mid 1970s
22nd sunspot cycle (1986-1996): increased = global warming continues
23rd sunspot cycle: lower (1996-2009) = warming peaked around 1998 and stopped
24th sunspot cycle: very low (2009 - ?)= temperatures stopped/slightly going down
(taken from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Solar_Cycles )
Present episode of warming started exactly at the same time, when the increased 21st sunspot cycle started. All in perfect concord.
In the last ten years, solar activity is weaker and our temperatures stopped rising. You may have heard, that solar activity is at record low, so no wonder that Earth temperatures have dropped in the last years. Perfect concord.
So where can you see any conflict between solar activity and our temperatures? To me it seems, there is quite a good concord between the solar activity and our temperatures. No need to search for other than solar explanation of the temperatures.
Maybe the temperatures would have been lower, if it were not for CO2 and human activity. Who knows. But apparently, when the sun goes down, our temperatures will go down too.
Czech pedologist Kutílek compared this to a ride on an escalator. If you make a step upwards (increasing you GHG emissions), it certainly brings you up faster. But you would have gotten there anyway. If you make one step downwards (decreasing your CO2 emissions), you only delay the inevitable.
You say, that our temperatures rose more than the solar activity? And so what. The sun-temperature correlation never was an exact match. And never will be. Just look at the correlation in the previous centuries. Periods of 10 or 20 years, when sun rose more/less than our temperatures are something absolutely normal. It is so normal, it is even boring. Again, again and again.
For billions of years Earth temperatures were governed by fluctuations of solar activity. And I do not see enough reasons to persuade me, we suddenly need to search for any "new" explanation.
I often hear, that denial of manmade warming is "denial of facts". Well, from my point of view it appears, that "solar influence denial" is denial of facts.
1) R. Vierick. The Sun-Climate Connection [Retrieved on 25 Aug 2009] Available at <http://www.research.noaa.gov/spotlite/archive/spot_sunclimate.html> Comparison of solar activity with sea level temperatures in the 20th century.
2) Sunspot numbers (August 2009) [Retrieved on 25 Aug 2009] Available at <http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/SSN/ssn.html> Dating of sunspot cycles.
3) Solar cycle progression. [Retrieved on 25 September 2009] Available at WWW <http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/> Prediction of the 24 Schwabe cycle.
4) L. Kyša. Vědec – Václav Klaus má s oteplováním pravdu [Retrieved 25 August 2009] Available at <http://www.tyden.cz/rubriky/veda-a-technika/veda/vedec-klaus-ma-s-globalnim-oteplovanim-pravdu_46960.html> In Czech language.
5) Roy Spencer. Measuring the Temperature of Earth from Space. [Retrieved on 25 Aug 2009] Available at <http://spacescience.spaceref.com/newhome/headlines/notebook/essd13aug98_1.htm> “We are grateful to Wentz and Schabel for discovering the first convincing evidence for needed corrections to our satellite-based global temperatures.... Climate models suggest that the deep layer measured by the satellite and weather balloons should be warming about 30% faster than the surface (+0.23 deg. C/decade). None of the satellite or weather balloon estimates are near this value.“
6) Schöl et all. Long term reconstruction of the total solar irradiance based on neutron monitor and sunspot data. [Retrieved on 25 Aug 2009] Available at <http://www.astro.phys.ethz.ch/papers/haberreiter/Schoell_subm2007.pdf>
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