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What if the temperatures were 6°C higher?

Published 09th November 2009 - 1 comments - 1707 views -

 Motto:

Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.

                  George Orwell in his novel "1984"

 

The contemporary temperatures are absolutely unique and extreme... except for medieval, altithermal, quaternary, eocene....

 

hockey

 

MEDIEVAL OPTIMUM

The graph above is the famous hockey stick graph from 1998. It erases both MWP and LIA with some "creative accounting". Draw a fine graph and you can rewrite history better than Stalin or the holocaust deniers. It was authored by M.E. Mann from Pennsylvania University.

You trust only Mr. Mann and not to the "deniers"? OK. So the graph below is also co-authored by M.E. Mann from Pennsylvania University. In 2006. Compare. Observe and learn.

 mwp

 

Graph from:   H. Goosse, O. Arzel, J. Luterbacher, M. E. Mann, H. Renssen, N. Riedwyl, A. Timmermann, E. Xoplaki, and H. Wanner "The origin of the European "Medieval Warm Period" <http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/29/80/51/PDF/cp-2-99-2006.pdf>

So what the hell is going on here?

You may say, that it was just a European warm period. A regional local event. But you can say this today too. Some regions are warmer, some are colder, somewhere the "global warming" is unnoticeable."

The point is: At least here in Europe we have already experienced such temperatures as today. And it did not bring any disaster. On the contrary. We had problems only when the little iceage (LIA) came - ships could no longer get to Greenland due to floating ice bergs, that got more southern. Cooling is bad. Warming is good.

 

HOLOCENE OPTIMUM

And what about the Holocene Optimum aka Altithermal? (in Europe the "Atlantic" climate period, between boreal and subboreal)

Mann admits that "In summary, the mid-Holocene, roughly 6,000 years ago, was generally warmer than today, but only in summer and only in the northern hemisphere."  (http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=999). McIntyre futher disputes, whether this warming really was limited just to the northern hemisphere and summer, but that is not so important, I think.

 

PREVIOUS INTERGLACIALS

In the previous interglacial the max temperatures were higher than now. It was no disaster.

In some of the previous interglacials the max temperatures were lower than now. I can imagine the cave people summoning conferences and freaking out, that "if temperatures get higher, we are all doomed, because in the past 200 000 years it never was so hot." But we got higher now and  yet we are OK.

 

EOCENE OPTIMUM

And the older period? I heard, that "temperatures must not rise more than 2°C above present levels". Why? They used to be even 6°C and life on Earth was quite happy with it. Life was flourishing more than anytime else.

 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.png. Note: cca 200-60 million B.P it was the time of the dinosaurs. Then we mammals took over.)

 

SOLUTION: ADAPTATION

The correct reaction to climate change is adaptation. You cannot stop climate from changing. You have to adapt it. That means a) migrate, b) invent new technologies. Mankind has always reacted this way and it always worked. We have adapted to thousands of climate changes during our history. Including the onset of ice ages.

Some nations may need to move and migrate. And so what? The whole history of mankind is the history of migrations. Read Jared Diamond. In the Czech Republic territory some 15 cultures/ethnicities have exchanged since 5500 BC. A change of culture/ethnicity on average every 400 years! It is normal.

The adaptation enforced through changing natural environment has always been the mechanism, that makes species to evolve and adapt. I think evolution is good. Otherwise we would still be a single-cell slime in the world oceans. How is it possible, that the environmenalists, who love Nature, know so  little about Darwinism and evolution?

 

CONCLUSION

Speaking of summers, we have seen warmer times and survived it OK. The present warmth is not exceptional and is within natural variation. It is not true that higher temperatures will lead to destruction of life, humans or civilisation on Earth. We will adapt to it just like in the past.

So don't panic.

panic 

 

Category: Climate Science, | Tags: medieval warm period,



Comments

Eamonn Fitzgerald on 09th November 2009:

Vitezslav, I’m not panicking about climate change, but I am panicking that I won’t get a juicy book contract or a sexy movie deal or a lucrative speaking fee if I don’t whip up some fever. Armageddon is so much more interesting than life’s humdrum routine and we know that nobody ever bought a paper to read about all the planes that landed safely yesterday. I should add, of course, that I am not accusing those involved in painting lurid pictures of the death of our planet of being hypocrites pimping off fear.

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