Iceland and climate change: it’s not all bad

Published 03rd December 2009 - 5 comments - 4336 views -

So far in these posts I have mostly been focusing on specific aspects of climate change in Iceland, like the economic, social and political implications – and potential – of our green energy.

But what about the broader picture? How will climate change affect Iceland in the future on a wider scale?

Assuming the global warming trend continues, initially it will mean pretty good news for this country. First, Iceland’s weather will [continue to] improve – something that is already happening and which most Icelanders revel in. Summers have never been so good as they have over the past decade or so – at least not for as long as anyone can remember – and we’re all pretty content with that, just as long as we don’t think about the glaciers.

Because of course the downside is that our beautiful glaciers are melting. If the trend continues as it has been, all our glaciers will be gone in about 200 years’ time – and keep in mind that Iceland has the largest ice cap in Europe, outside of Greenland. Indeed, Icelandic glaciers have already receded a substantial amount – measured in metres, not centimetres – since the turn of the century ten years ago.

Initially, the increase in meltwater from the glaciers will mean a boom in energy as Iceland harnesses glacial rivers for hydroelectric power. That should last for about 50 years or so. The rivers will then begin to recede and many will dry up. Iceland will then become reliant on rainwater for its fresh water supply and abundant energy will become a thing of the past. However, all is not gloom and doom: with the ice caps gone, geothermal energy fields will become available, which can then be harnessed for power.

Another highly significant aspect of global warming for Iceland is the melting of the Arctic ice north of the country, which will offer potential for Iceland to tap into hitherto inaccessible oil and gas reserves. This creates a slight dilemma for Iceland – should it go full-out exploiting the fossel fuels that become available and thereby exacerbate the global warming problem, or should it continue to focus on ways to utilize alternative energies and, potentially, become a model for the rest of the world?

Tough call.

Meanwhile, the Arctic ice melt will also open up a new sailing route from the Pacific to the North Atlantic – indeed, the first [specially-equipped] ships have already passed through that way, and it is expected that normal vessels will be able to follow suit within the next five years or so. This creates an opportunity for Iceland to become a northern shipping hub which, combined with the probable search for oil and gas, could mean a boom for Iceland’s harbours. Whether or not this is a good thing is the subject of debate – while some people see the inherent economic potential, others worry about increased pollution in the oceans, particularly with large oil carriers passing through. Also, many folks are not keen on Iceland becoming some sort of Klondike region, crazed with avarice, greed and depravity [… wait, isn’t that just what we had in the few years preceding the bank collapse?].

All this melting will of course lead to rising sea levels, which as everyone knows will have disastrous effects for many countries in the world … although probably not Iceland. For one thing, Icelandic coastal towns are generally situated on elevated land. Furthermore, the melting of the glaciers will cause land to rise in Iceland, as it is freed from the enormous weight of the ice caps. This will cause problems for harbours, particularly in the south of Iceland, as land is expected to rise by some two metres; however, those problems are minuscule compared to other places worldwide which will literally be under water as sea levels rise.

Other changes that Iceland will most probably see as a result of global warming include an increase in volcanic activity as the pressure applied by the ice caps abates, a change in fish migrating patterns in Icelandic waters [coldwater fish are already moving northwards, whereas at least 23 new species of fish have been found in Icelandic waters in the past few years], and more flooding as a result of increased storm activity. With warmer and possibly wetter summers [although we have yet to see a significant increase in rain during our newly warm summers as far as I can tell], Icelandic farmers have the opportunity to grow new types of crops. Already they are experimenting with barley [and subsequently making their own Icelandic beer], and wheat is on the drawing board. On the downside, the warmer summers will mean an increase in pests – indeed, there is already a proliferation of various unwelcome settlers, such as wasps, which were nonexistent in Iceland 20 years ago, and which have now become an inherent part of any summer.

So it is difficult to say precisely how these changes will play out in years and decades to come, but one thing is sure: Iceland, like many other places in the world, stands on the cusp of change in matters of climate and the environment. Just how it manages to utilize the inherent opportunities and deal with the resulting challenges remains to be seen.

[PHOTO credit: a volcanic eruption beneath Vatnajökull glacier, Europe's largest ice cap outside of Greenland.]

Category: Climate Science, Polar Regions, | Tags:

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Alda Sigmundsdottir
Reykjavík, Iceland
Writer, journalist, translator

I am a writer, journalist and blogger based in Reykjavik, Iceland. I was born in Iceland, grew up in Canada and Cyprus, and lived in the UK and Germany before moving back to Iceland in 1994. I run Iceland's most widely-read English-language blog, www.icelandweatherreport.com, where these days I mostly chronicle the country's economic meltdown. My blog was shortlisted for Best European Blog in the 2008 and 2009 Bloggies Weblog Awards and has been featured in various media worldwide. I have also written about Iceland's economic and political crisis for The Guardian's "Comment is Free."

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