2012: Natural disasters will be worse and worse?
Published 15th December 2009 - 3 comments - 4512 views -
COP15 was opened with a disaster movie similar to The Day After Tomorrow or 2012 by Roland Emmerich. Why? To show, that Mann-mad climate change disaster is just a fiction like the Hollywood flicks?
M Y T H O L O G Y
PACHAURI: IPCC boss used to say, that unless we do something by 2020, we are doomed. Now he says the deadline is even shorter - we must act within the next 3 years. Tcktck.
MAYANS: By a coincidence, the Kyoto Protocol expires roughly the same time, when the world is destined to end with an Apocylypse. According to a Mayan Prophecy - 2012. Have you seen the latest Roland Emmerich movie on this?
ST JOHN THE DIVINE : Such prophecies of Apocalypse are normal part of almost every human culture. People love horror stories. One part of Bible is called Revelation of St. John the Divine and it says, what future he saw: "The first angel sounded, and there followed hail and fire mingled with blood... all green grass was burnt up.... and the third part of the sea became blood... and many men died of the waters, because they were made bitter." Seems like St. John was a member of Greenpeace.
R E A L I T Y
1) Polar Bears: population is rising, not falling
-"Just about every day you see something on TV about bears," says Chucky Gruben, an Inuvialuit hunter, "so much of it is bulls--t."
-Some estimates of the global population are around 5,000–10,000 in the early 1970s; Current estimates put the global population at between 20,000 and 25,000.
-The Innuits protest against protection of polar bears. They hunt them to get food and money for living. They have hunted them for millenia. Who are we to come in and bully them?
-If anything endangers the polar bears, it is hunting, not climate change
2) Antarctica melting?
- Antarctica ice sheet has been slightly growing in thickness by 5 mm/year (1992 to 2003).
- Half of Antarctic is warming (west) and half is cooling (east). Nobody knows why.
- Arctic ice melting ended/slowed a couple of years ago. Now the ice is growing. Good for polar bears.
- Hard to believe Al Gore, that we will have ice-free summers in the Arctic within a few years. At this rate, within 90 years perhaps... if the trend should continue. (see http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.area.jpg)
- The medialised images of melting ice are from summer. The ice grows back during winter.
From: National Snow and Ice Data Center (http://nsidc.org/sotc/sea_ice.html)
3) Sea level rising?
- Over the last century sea levels rose by 20 cm. According to IPCC 2007 estimates, sea level might rise by another 18-59 cm within the next century.
- Sea level rise stopped around 2005.
4) Hurricanes rising?
From: James Cato. Hurricanes and Tropical Storms: Higher Frequency for the Future? Available at <http://snre.ufl.edu/pubsevents/source/fall05/stormy.htm>
The truth is, that hurricanes cause ever greater damages. Why? Because we have more people, more houses, higher salaries, more expensive electronics in our houses.
5) Floods rising?
From: Flood Chronology of the Carson River Basin, California and Nevada. Nevada Water Science Center (http://nevada.usgs.gov/crfld/floodfreq_desc.htm)
Can you see any trend? Where?
6) Forest fires rising?
From: R. Black. Forest fires - a continuing Greek tragedy. BBC. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8220491.stm
I cannot see any rising trend. Can you?
Even if there is some global warming or Mann-made climate change, it does not lead to any disaster.
About the author
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