TH!NK post

Darker Side Of Growth

Published 07th October 2010 - 7 comments - 735 views -

Climate Change is possibly the most mentioned couple of words in today’s media. World seems to know whatever is there to know about Climate Change. Gazillions of websites report on it, tons of print media publish about it, nations are engaged dealing with it and here, as THINKERs, we blog about it. In all these interesting activities, climate science quests and popular interest, have we moved a bit off the way from basics?

I guess nobody will seriously object if I draw one strand of logical cause and effect thread about Climate Change towards it’s root.

1. Climate Change is one part due to Global Warming.

2. Global Warming is one part due to anthropogenic CO2 released in the atmosphere (or CO2 equivalent of all green house gasses that are released into atmosphere on account of human activities).

3. The human activities that are responsible for this increased CO2 release into atmosphere are from cars, power plants etc. jointly referred as Industry.

I hope you are still with me. I shall go one logical cause-and-effect bit further.

4. This Industry, the man made effect, is because we are growing. We are growing as a species biologically, as societies culturally, as nations politically and as individuals fiscally. We are obsessed with growth and as people, our aspirations are limitless.

Even with the advent of the coinage ‘sustainability’, we are not fully aware of the momentum of our growth. Sadly, there is a darker side of growth.

Nearly three decades ago, when I asked my girlfriend if she understood what exponential growth meant, she rolled her eyes and gave me a look that could only mean ‘save me from this nerdy nerd!’. Apart from realizing that I shall have to repent for getting ‘mathematical’ with the woman I was courting for the rest of my life, I started feeling that exponential growth is not something compatible with our common sense notions. When we visualize growth we imagine an orderly, gradual and linear growth – something that seems to encourage us to grow. But most important entities of life in the world do not grow linearly. They grow exponentially. And that kind of growth may not be something to welcome. When cells of our body grow randomly and non-linearly we get cancer.

Take population. The human population has doubled twice in last hundred years. One way of saying that is: in only last 100 years there were 4 times as many humans as compared to the total number of human beings till the beginning of 20th century. If that’s scary, Energy consumption by us is doubling 4 times faster than population growth. Number of automobiles is doubling ten times faster than population growth. I find this aspect of growth somewhat ‘demonic’. Our growth, in many ways, is runaway.

We seldom go back to these basics and look for a solution of our future problems in the past. For a test, I placed a simple quiz to a considerable number of people. The set was extremely random, consisting from professionals like Accountants, Engineers, Doctors, Scientists to fifth graders, grannies, salesmen, news paper vendors. Out of 100 such people from this varied group, I expected a common wisdom to get the answer right. Sadly, only 11 people got it right and all these 11 people were trained professionals.

I wish to offer the quiz here.

In a pond, lotuses grow such that every minute the number doubles. In 17 minutes the pond was half full. How long would it take for the lotuses to fill the pond?

The answer is not anymore important to me. A few lotuses in a pond is blissful. I am interested to know how you feel about a pond filled with lotuses end to end.

Category: Sustainable Development, | Tags:



Comments

Giedre Steikunaite on 11th October 2010:

One minute?

Pabitra on 11th October 2010:

Right. Ty. Hope you get a feeling what is exponential growth. Something that took 17 mins to be half full, gets filled up in next minute. Simply because of doubling rate. Imagine, trippling or ten times faster…..scary, isn’t?

Giedre Steikunaite on 11th October 2010:

Scary indeed.

I really like this post of yours. In case you’re interested more, here’s a nice article on growth, or on nature’s bottom line: http://www.newint.org/features/2010/07/01/natures-bottom-line/ and on de-growth movement http://www.newint.org/features/2010/07/01/decroissance-french-degrowth-movement/.

Pabitra on 11th October 2010:

Thanks. I’ll get back to you after reading your links.

Pabitra on 14th October 2010:

Sorry for the delay. Your links led to some good reading, particualrly de-growth (or a-growth) movement in France and Italy. I did not know of such movement taking place but, if you read my post titled “My Crazy Idea”, you may agree that I was proposing something like this.
Actually, these movements are early tremors of changing of balance due to a huge paradigm shift in the basic way we view life caused by a deep anxiety about environmental degradation. I foresee many more movements like this in every part of the world, in years to come. It’s not surprising at all. When collective consciousness understands a mistake, the same collective consciousness corrects it. For example, hunting wild animals, which was a ‘sport’ even 100 years ago is now extinct.
In case of Climate Change, the question is about time. I just hope that we start early to change ourselves (without so much looking up to governments, scietists and technologists for a magic cure).
I am looking forward to blog on this topic soon.

Giedre Steikunaite on 14th October 2010:

Yes indeed. Will be looking for your posts on the grassroots changes!

But do you really believe movements like the de-growth one will be widespread one day soon? It basically means many privileged people have to sacrifice those privileges for a common good - are we really that greed-free, that selfless?

And as for hunting wild animals - that is still happening, unfortunately.

Pabitra on 14th October 2010:

Yes, I earnestly believe that, if not out of charity, hunanity will ultimately change over from the present consumerist growth into a kind of organic, sustainable and conservation based approach of life out of its deep anxiety about environmental degradation. I am not sure, how soon. But then, ‘soon’ is a relative term.  I foresee such radiacl change in 50 to 100 years from now.
You have a very good point about greed, I agree. For generations who lived on an economy where an individual’s consumption is way more than any rationality and good sense can justify, such changes will not be easy - the word ‘sacrifice’ may sound awful to them. But may I point out that fear (of an uncertain future and unspeakable misery) is an equally strong vector. Between greed and fear, I guess, fear will ultimately win.
I also hope that economists will explain to common people that prosperity, happiness and wellbeing can still be achieved within a conserver economy.
I tend to disagree with you about wild game hunting. I donot think it is practiced openly anywhere these days. Poaching may be, ritual killing of animals, yes that too, but hunting as a ‘sport’ (and a connected business)...well may be we should request Johan Knolls as a referee because Johan remained associated with wildlife in Africa for 16 years smile.
I welcome your views and hope to write about possible forms of life-changes in my coming blogs.

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