A Final Warning (No. 11 in an ongoing series)
Published 01st November 2009 - 2 comments - 763 views -
A notable addition to the mound of literature predicting climate catastrophe is The Vanishing Face of Gaia: A Final Warning by James Lovelock. In it, the British scientist claims that our planet is being suffocated by greenhouse gases and that Earth will soon — in a few years or a few decades — move from its current stable, cool state to a dramatically warmer one. This will be followed by the collapse of civilization. The End.
Lovelock's hellish vision sees the Earth in a permanent "hot state" that will be brought on by a dramatic climate lurch. Some climatologists accept the "lurch" notion and say that one occurred at the end of the last ice age. But because the timing of such lurches is completely unpredictable, they cannot be integrated into the computer models that are used to predict climate change. Except that this is exactly what Lovelock does. Using his own modelling, he forecasts that a climatic lurch is coming and will involve a sudden increase in average global surface temperature of 9 degrees Celsius — from 15 to 24 degrees Celsius. Such a shift, he believes, will lead to the collapse of global civilization and the near extinction of humanity.
According to Lovelock, climatic instability will begin as the concentration of CO2 reaches 400 parts per million (ppm). When CO2 reaches a concentration of 400-500 ppm, his computer model predicts a sudden rise in temperature of 9 degrees Celsius. But, and this is interesting, just before that major temperature lurch the temperature will drop for a few years. Lovelock writes that if his model "truly represents the Earth's response to increasing carbon dioxide, it is scary because it implies that before the final jump to a desert world, the climate will briefly become cooler again. This warns that a cold summer, or even a series of them, is not proof that global heating has ended."
So, the very cooling that many cite as a refutation of unverifiable climate predictions is now accounted for in the catastrophist model. All angles have been covered and there are no exits. We are doomed. Of course, when placed beside Lovelock's model, the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which predicts a possible temperature rise of 2-3 degrees Celsius this century, sounds benign. But before we relax, it's worth noting that the climate science congress held in Copenhagen in March and attended by 2,500 delegates, concluded that "the worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realised." Lovelock's dystopia has adherents in high places.
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