Most people agree that there is no little chance of a binding treaty being agreed at the Copenhagen Climate conference next month. At the same time there is considerable optimism that a high level political framework can be agreed within which negotiators can be given a new mandate to pursue a new climate change treaty which will be a worthy successor to the Kyoto Protocol.

‘Copenhagen’ may thus be delayed and will no doubt not arrive in Copenhagen: nevertheless it does look more likely than not that a treaty will be agreed not too many months hence
For its part the European Union is pressing for ‘a global, ambitious, comprehensive and legally binding international treaty that will prevent global warming from reaching the dangerous levels.’ These are defined as anything above a 2°C rise above the pre-industrial level temperatures.

To achieve this global emissions cannot go on rising after 2020, the EU says, and thereafter will need to fall by at least 50% of 1990 levels by 2050.  This means that industrialised countries will need to cut their greenhouse gas emissions to 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020 while developing countries will need to limit their current rapid emissions growth by around 15-30% below what it otherwise would have been.

The EU has made an unconditional commitment to cut its emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020.  As we know, it is prepared to go further, and faster, in the interests of achieving a global climate deal.  Just how far and how fast is not said although the figure of 30% has been laid down on the negotiating table for starters.  Other industrialised countries have not been nearly so forthcoming.

In addition the EU has made an important international commitment towards the finance that will be needed to help poorer developing countries to adapt to climate change.  At the end of last month  - although significantly without putting a figure on it - the EU’s member states committed themselves to providing a ‘fair share’ of this finance which has been estimated at up to €50 billion. How the states will share the burden between themselves has also proved to be a thorny question, especially given that some states are by no means rich.

The EU is also committed to providing its fair share of 'fast-start' financing to help developing countries build up their capacities to combat climate change during the next few years. The EU’s contribution will be decided in the light of the outcome of the final agreement, but as much as €5-7 billion could be needed annually over the three years if negotiations are successful and an ambitious global agreement results.

So what is the state of play? Progress during the five climate negotiating sessions held so far this year has been slower than hoped for. At the last meeting - in Barcelona - some progress was made; the text is now more streamlined. But with the amount of work still to be done few expect now that fully fledged treaty can be completed in Copenhagen as originally intended.
The Copenhagen process is being conducted by all 194 Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.  The EU certainly hopes that all 194 - including the United States and other countries that did not sign the Kyoto Protocol can brought within the ambit of a single legally binding international climate change treaty.  The intention is that this will incorporate and build on the essential elements of the Kyoto Protocol, including ‘emission reductions by industrialised countries, market-based mechanisms, accounting rules for changes in emissions due to land use, land use change and forestry, and a strong compliance regime.’

If a full treaty can’t be completed - and in Barcelona the EU again underlined its readiness to complete such a treaty - then the fallback position is that the outcome will be a strong framework agreement covering the essential building blocks of the new treaty and, importantly, a new deadline for completing it as any new treaty will need to be ratified in time for it to come into force on 1 January 2013 as the Kyoto Protocol expires.

It is worth looking at what these major building blocks might be - from an EU perspective there are three such:

 First, an ambitious set of emission reduction commitments by developed countries including the United States;
 Secondly, adequate action by developing countries to curb their emissions growth; and,
 Thirdly, a financial deal to assist developing countries in mitigating their emissions and adapting to climate change.

Besides these the EU hopes that a treaty will embrace incentives to slow and eventually stop tropical deforestation, which presently contributes up to one sixth of total greenhouse gas emissions besides reducing the capacity of the environment to soak up CO2 from the atmosphere.  Tropical deforestation should reduce by at least 50% by 2020 compared to current levels, say the EU, and the loss of global forest cover should be halted altogether by 2030 at the latest.  

The treaty should also include targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation by 10% and from international maritime transport by 20% by 2020, compared to 2005 levels. It should also include a Framework for Action on Adaptation to climate change aimed at building a more climate-resilient society and increasing adaptation assistance to the poorest and most vulnerable developing countries.

The Photograph shows the President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, briefing the press and is courtesy of the Council of the European Union.