The leaked new draft document provides an assessment of the pledges made by Annex I Parties and voluntary actions and policy goals announced by a number of non-Annex I Parties in the lead-up to the COP15 held in Copenhagen. It is based on the most recent emission scenarios presented in the IEA 2009 World Energy Outlook and information from Parties on pledges, voluntary actions and policy goals.

The assesment is conducted by comparing the reference scenario, the impact from the pledges, voluntary actions and policy goals and the 450ppm scenario. The paper shows a gap of 10,5 Gt to the required level of 44Gt needed to achieve stabilization of the concentration of emissions in the atmosphere that is consistent with the goal of staying below 2 degrees. This gap could be partly covered by the emission savings that could result from the minimum pledges and maximum pledges. Unless the remaining gap of around 1,9 to 4,2 Gt is closed and Parties commit themselves to strong action prior to 2020, global emissions will remain on an unsustainable pathway that could lead to concentrations equal or above 550 ppm with the related temperature raise around 3 degrees.

The 8 page pdf version of the document is available on tcktcktck . It's a big doc, so be patient to fully load it.

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Most of the countries have already put a pledge on the table, but the last 2 years of negociations don't seem to have found the right solution so far.

Theoretically there are 24h left before the negotiations are over but the discussions between the 130 HOS can change everything even if the time is short. However, people have already started to discuss about COP16 (to be possibly moved to July 2010, from November-December 2010).