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Saving India from Oil
The Indian economy has been showing consistent high growth rates and the government targets to maintain a healthy 8% in the next decade. Predictably Oil demand is expected to rise at 3.5% per annum in the next decade. As a country not blessed with oil(domestic production has stagnated for the past 20 years), India currently imports 70% of its oil The Energy Research Institute predicts that by 2021 our import dependency will be 81% in a BAU scenario which would rise to 90% by 2031. As the recent Iran developments show, energy security is a major national concern especially with mounting Chinese competition for oil. On the eve of the 59th Independence Day, the President of India rightly emphasized our country’s need to be energy independent within 25 years. Rising energy prices and the ever complicating geo-political considerations of energy imports will compromise this ambition and decrease energy-security.
The other worrying trends the oil growth points to:
1. Rising vehicular traffic: Growing gasoline demand points at increase in vehicles, exacerbating our problems of congestion, safety and pollution in urban areas. The green house gas emissions of the transport sector are expected to soar with increasing economic well-being with even low-income people having choices to meet needs for personal mobility. The much acclaimed USD 2000 Tata Nano is quickly going to turn into an urban Indian's worst nightmare.
2. Growth on an unsustainable energy source: It is increasingly clear that petroleum reserves are limited and the oil production peak could be reached anytime in the next decade. India’s economic growth currently depends heavily on an efficient international supply of oil and there is a need for a political agenda to increase percentages of renewable energy sources in our present fuel mix.
Since the transport sector accounts for and will continue to account for more than 50% of the oil consumption, this sector needs some major policies to decrease oil consumption.
Although the recent 11th Five year plan recognizes many of the growing problems related to the transport sector like the spike in two-wheeler and four-wheeler fleets, congestion on roads, decreasing share of public transport and the lack of fuel economy standards, there are very little concrete policies in place.
I suggest the following points must be integrated in our policies to increase oil conservation at a national level:
a. Enforcing fuel economy standards: Improving vehicle efficiency is the often the easiest, fastest and the cheapest way to conserve oil. But there are no fuel economy standards enforced till date in India. This could be due to resistance from car manufacturers whose manufacturing costs would increase leading to decrease in demand and loss of employment in the car manufacturing sector.
b. Enforcing mix of biofuels: Mixes of biofuels have already proven to be successful in decreasing oil consumption with minimal effect on efficiency and increase in oil savings. Brazil is a success story of how ethanol has proven to be a replacement for gasoline. In 2007 the government aimed to increasing ethanol blending percentage to 10% by 2012 and introduces 5% bio-diesel blending percentage by 2015.
c. Improving public-transport: Our public transport system is very clearly pressurized by a growing urban population. In majority of the cities, there is no actual public transportation. Improving public transport not only decreases the road congestion by discouraging usage of personal vehicles but also improves livability of cities and improves the speed of doing business. Aging fleets and decreasing fuel economy are a problem.
d. Higher taxation of personal-vehicles: Indian vehicle taxation rates are some of the lowest in the world, which has had a negative effect on road congestion. Introduction of higher taxation on personal vehicles should be used to create a public fund that can then be used to improve public-transport. This step along with introduction of fuel-economy and emission-standards, will discourage buying of personal-vehicles and phase out old vehicles, thus improving traffic congestion.
e. CNG for all commercial-vehicles: Delhi is a very successful example of how enforcement of CNG as the fuel for all commercial vehicles can have a positive effect on decrease in oil consumption and improvement in air-quality. India has a vast access to natural gas fields, and enforcing CNG in all major cities will decrease dependency on oil imports.
f. Development of alternative fuel vehicles: In the future vehicles are expected to run on alternate sources of energy like fuel cells, electricity or solar energy. These vehicles are commercially not viable without any government policy that encourages usage of these vehicles, thus providing incentives to manufacturers to research alternative vehicles. These vehicles depend on non-petroleum energy sources, thus having a direct effect on oil demand.
TERI and IEA reports show that India can achieve as much as 10% savings in 2030 by introducing CNG in commercial vehicles, fuel economy standards and improving the public transport sector. I personally would love to see the smaller cities encourage cycling through dedicated lanes, but that is a distant dream with the cost of owning a motorbike being as cheap as USD500.
I need more ideas on this. What are policies that have proven successful in other countries to decrease oil dependency?
Comments
Some very good points there Abhishek.
Re: Your point: Enforcing mix of biofuels.
It’s good theory but may turn out to be a disastrous practice, if not controlled.
here’s a link:
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/06/28/2153
Also see Greenpeace take on it.
Here is something from CSE:
If these recent converts to biofuels have their way, the food security of the poor—already imperilled—might well be sacrificed for the energy security of the rich. Already, corn prices are being linked to those of biofuel.
More here:
http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/node/2881
Hemant I agree on your points about biofuels, especially considering the food vs fuel debate and that their calorific value is low.
But biofuels is one sector where the government already has introduced the regulation and since I don’t think they’ll roll it back, proper enforcement has its merits.
Ethanol production in India can be only from non-food grains like sugar molasses, and importantly Indian distilleries already have enough capacity to meet our ethanol demands till 2015. All that we are lacking is political will to enforce the regulation for mixing.
Hey, this is great. It’s very detailed and focused on one issue, I like that. Next time, it would be even better if you could include a few pics or even a video in which we can see for ourselves the effects of some of the issues you talk about…
I very much like your article Abhishek!
Two thoughts:
1. A lot of the electricity production in Europe is still produced in oil-based power stations. I don’t know the situation in India, but that might also be a point to address.
2. biofuels - I agree with Hemant that biofuels need strict enforcement of regulation to assure fuel-crops do not outcompete food-crops. However, many of the protest focuses on first generation biofuels which uses food-crops. The second generation is using plants that grow in areas where the ground is sub-optimal for normal agricultural activities. Think of cactusses in desert areas…
Perhaps an argument that you could also use in your discourse is “bringing jobs back home”. Now the oil-producing countries take all the money and jobs from the oil-importing nations. By using other kinds of fuel you bring the jobs back home. Ex:
1. Biofuels: work for peasants who would normally loose their jobs and move to towns because of increasing yiels due to technological improvements. It also generates work in the refinement sector
2. energy efficient cars: producing more ee cars demands more working hours/car & technological development of the vehicles.
3….
Keep on going. This is inspiring work.
Waldo
I need to find an engine for my husbands car. Where would be good a good place to start looking? Any advice is welcome.
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Very exhaustive and well thought article!
The point about biofuels is especially promising, but critical to regulate, as mentioned.
Further, my state (Maharashtra) has a large number of sugar factories, which can have ethanol as byproduct, a win-win situation, if properly implemented.
Your blog reflects the research you have done on the oil and its use in India. I am was particularly amazed to read about the fuel efficiency standards. Good Work.
I have been with out my car for more than 2.5 months the repair shop keep doing a miss and miss, cause to call it a hit and miss would be lying. To this day the car is not running. Now to release my car it will cost me over $600 for repairs.
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What are the Ten most fuel efficient cars in the world?I am looking for a new car. I want one that gets really good gas mileage so I don’t have to waste money on gas all the time.
hey cool good one and that picture on thatindian bus really sadcant believepeople in india actually travel like that!!!!!ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!!!!!but lets hope for a better and “developed” india in the future!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111
bus sucks! really old looks like it could break apart any moment but there are lots of other things to love about india than public transportations!! right????
iluv india!!!!!!!!!!! and shame on you shun it is certainly not an ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!!!
Cheer for your analysis which is objective and without concession.
You understood exactly what you must do; I do not have anything to add!