Post
New Data on Peak Oil
A new article (pdf) by a team of scientists from the Uppsala University in Sweden, the University of Adelaide, Australia and the University of Liverpool in the UK argues that the assessment of future oil supply in the World Energy Outlook 2008 by the International Energy Agency is too optimistic.
The scientists say that the difference lies in one parameter only - the depletion rates of remaining recoverable resources.
The two figures below show the IEA oil projections and the Upsala World Oil Outlook:
The article forecasts that the world oil supply in 2030 will be 75.8 million barrels per day in stead of 101.5 million barrels per day as projected by the IEA.
But what does that mean for climate change? One study by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Columbia University Earth Institute (pdf) shows that the different outcomes of the policies addressing peak oil have very important consequences for climate change. The article advises on placing a significant rising price on CO2 emissions. In this way we can slow the rate at which fossil fuel resources are exploited. Some of the oil, gas, and coal will be left in the ground, primarily in deposits at great depths or in extreme environmental locations.
But what if we don’t price up carbon emissions? The contribution from unconventional fossil fuels will probably increase total CO2 emissions, while oil and other liquid fossil fuels will be used up more quickly.
It may well turn out that peak oil rather than concern for the environment may motivate decision-makers to price carbon emissions.
Comments
Question: Do these estimates of future oil consumption include also the unknown reserves, which have not yet been discovered?
How can you predict a size of an oil field, you have not discovered yet???
Did someone predict in 1992, that in 2008 Brazil discovers the world’s third largest petrol reserve?
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/04/14/world/main4013564.shtml
Predictions are pointless in this. This is why Club of Rome predicted in 1972 that we run out of oil by 1992. We did not.
Of course the exact date of peak oil is difficult to decide. We might have passed it, or it might be 50 years ahead. But still - everyone knows that the oil will run out one day, and the better we can ge rid of oil dependence (and dependence on oil producing countries’ governments), the better.
Actually I do a little work translating a Swedish peak oil blog into english, feel free to take a look:
http://life-after-oil.blogspot.com/
Yes, one day we will run out of oil. One day also our Sun will die. One day the Universe will end in a Big Crunch…
So we should start immediate mitigation action before it is too late.
Stop the universe from expanding now! Tcktck.
Vitezslav, if you took the effort to read the article you would know the answer to your question.
Vitezslav, if you took the effort to read the article you would know the answer to your question.
Again Vihar, you are making the erroneous assumption that Vitezslav is actually reading what we are writing.
I’ve been doing the same mistake for quite some time, you know.
Federico, I am always trying to give people the benefit of doubt.
Well, you are very patient, like Benno.
Admirable. :D
I don’t think we’re at peak oil yet physically, because a lot of Iraq’s capacity is underused, and some of Iran’s capacity is. They could start adding in the range of 6-8 million barrels a day for quite a long time. Some of Nigeria’s capacity is similarly underused due to conflict.
So most oil production in the near future rests on political rather than geological questions: Will Iraq be stable, will Iran make a deal with the world on its nuclear power, can some more fairness resolve the conflict in Nigeria, and so on.
Nanne, on a more cheerful note your comment reminds me of the famous quote by John Maynard Keynes: “In the long run we are all dead”.
The problem here is not the market next week. You may want to read this research by Detsche Bank explaining some of the current oil price fundamentals: http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000251256.pdf
However, the definite question is not about the near future (though you may expect some price shocks). The big question is how do we supplant an oil-driven economy altogether.
The arc of history is long but it bends towards renewable energy
Energy security is very dependant on finding abundant, local, and safe fuel sources. Check out Realm Energy’s blog at http://realm-energy.com to learn more about natural gas and how it can contribute to a clean energy future.