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Failure in Copenhagen–Realistic?
You have heard the claim - failure in Copenhagen is not an option. This is what Gordon Brown says, too.
But many experienced international negotiators smile condescendingly on hearing that slogan. Why?
Well, a game theorist - Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, says that his calculations predict that the COP 15 conference will fail to produce any meaningful agreement for the post-Kyoto period. He says that today's emerging powerhouses like Brazil, India, and China simply won't stand for serious curbs on their emissions, and the pro-regulation crowd in the United States and Europe won't be strong enough to force their hands. Mr. de Mesquita makes other predictions, too, so it may be interesting to read the whole article.
In a simpler explanation, Bill McKibben sums it up nicely: ”the developing world would like to...develop. And the most obvious way to do it is to burn coal.”
The consultancy Harwood Levitt even claims that the West itself is not serious about tackling climate change.
So what to do? John Prescott argues for a “Plan B” after Copenhagen. So does David Victor. The idea is to focus attention on the most genuine and credible contingent offers so that the talks do not stall. A small club of key emitters that has adopted the “pledge and review” system as an ongoing process could transform the credibility of climate actions and provide an effective alternative to over-ambitious global negotiations.
It may be wise to consider all potential alternatives.
Comments
I guess that the countries like China would have a serious claims in COP15.
In my point of view we could expect surprises and from some developed countries.
My prediction: In December no global agreement is achieved, but EU will adopt drastic CO2 cutting measures anyway. To lead the way etc.
Result: European economy heading down and down. No measurable impact on climate. Increased prices of everything for Europeans.
... companies and even people moving out of Europe to escape this.
I believe with or without serious confrontation, there will be some conclusions after all. There could be thousands of opinions. They can negotiate before the COP15, I think. This meeting is to draw the line of the new agreement and not just to discuss “what can we do now”. The “can”-part is not an issue for me.
Well, there are many points of view, for sure. Maybe the current negotiations approach should be pushed to the limit to explore the possibility of a breakthrough.
Vitezslav, the EU probably knows from experience that shutting down trade unilaterally does not help.
My prediction: There will be a document emerging from COP15, stating the political will to limit global heating, but without any binding agreements of any kind. These will be ajourned to a prolonged negotiation process after the COP 15.
Daniel, if there is no legally binding document, this would look like an outright failure, don’t you think?
It does
But they won`t create such “regulation”. It`s pointless
Today France and Brazil are joined to demand results.