Is Michael Levi a cynic or a realist? If the latter, then we're all wasting our time by blogging here or even talking about the COP15. In the September/October 2009 issue of Foreign Affairs, in his piece "Copenhagen's Inconvenient Truth," Levi postulates that the COP15 will most certainly be a failure. (Even if you disagree with Levi's points, his piece is well worth reading.)

Levi's Claim: "Many U.S. lawmakers want absolute near-term emissions caps from China and India, but those countries will not sign up for anything of the sort for at least another decade. And before they consider a deal of any kind, Chinese and Indian negotiators are demanding that developed countries commit to cutting their greenhouse gas emissions by over 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2020, but none of the world's wealthiest countries will even come close to meeting this goal."

My Analysis: These are all legitimate concerns, but demand for ANY agreement, even a "greenwashed" one, will likely make it such that the claims above will leave room for compromise.

Levi's Claim: "The other top-ranking developing-country emitters, Brazil and Indonesia, are different because their emissions come mostly from deforestation, which is less closely tied to economic growth. (Deforestation releases carbon dioxide stored in vegetation and in the soil.) Brazil has offered to cut its rate of deforestation by 70 percent in the next ten years, provided it receives enough compensation, and Indonesia has suggested that it could actually halt deforestation with the right help, yet neither has identified exactly how much assistance it will need from the world's richer countries."

My Analysis: Levi is spot on with this one. What incentive do Brazil and Indonesia have to make concrete changes? These nations will likely act in their own best interests to gain a huge influx of cash in exchange for changing their practices.

Levi's Claim: "Second, even if a developing country met its agreed emissions cap, other nations would, in the near term, have little way of verifying this, since most developing countries, including China and India, lack the capacity to robustly monitor their entire economies' emissions."

My Analysis: Again, Levi has great points. What authority can regulate these emissions standards? Who is watching who? As Thomas Friedman wrote on October 18, 2008, "And therein lies the central truth of globalization today: We’re all connected and nobody is in charge."